Waverly, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

683
FXUS63 KDMX 071924
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
224 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms are expected
  off and on today into Monday morning. Pockets of heavy rain
  are possible and may lead to renewed flooding, especially in
  areas that have already received heavy rain in the last few
  days.

- An active week ahead with a larger system bringing strong to
  severe storms to the area Tuesday through Thursday. Strongest
  storms are expected on Wednesday.

- Warm and humid conditions through the first half of the week
  with many areas reaching 90 degrees, then cooling back to the
  low 80s to finish the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

An elongated surface low sits along the western edge of the
central and northern plains, allowing for deep moisture
transport and waves of theta e advection into the area today.
This has resulted in scattered showers with a few thunderstorms
off and on today. Convection has struggled to organize with very
little available shear and deeply saturated sounding profiles.
Daytime heating is expected to help enhance convection late this
afternoon with increasing coverage in precipitation, including
lightning. Severe chances remain quite low. The final push of
convection will occur overnight through Monday morning with
convection tapering off from west to east by midday as the low
lifts east. In addition to lightning, heavy rain will be the
primary concern with convection. The environment remains
supportive of efficient rainfall owing to PWATs near 2" and warm
cloud layers over 4000 m. The scattered and progressing nature
of the convection should help to mitigate most risk, especially
in northern Iowa which has missed out on most rain the past few
days. In southern Iowa flash flood guidance is closer to 1"
with soils more saturated from rain the past several days.
Should a pocket of heavier rain set up across southern Iowa,
flash flooding will need close monitoring.

Temperatures warm up on Monday behind the precipitation with highs
reaching the mid to upper 80s. That heat builds into Tuesday with
low 90s expected across most of the area. While Tuesday should
be mostly dry, we are watching the potential for a nocturnal MCS
tracking across Nebraska to reach western Iowa by Tuesday
morning. It will be diminishing in strength by around sunrise,
though CAMs indicate weak remnants could pass across Iowa into
midday. If this does happen the cloud cover may put a damper on
the heat expected. It is also worth noting that the environment
on Tuesday becomes deeply unstable due to increasing heat and
humidity. If MCS is able to maintain strength into Iowa that
would help to fuel it, however at this time that scenario looks
unlikely.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

The low level jet strengthens Tuesday evening, nosing into western
Iowa. This may allow for renewed convection along a lingering
outflow from and morning MCS remnants that pass across Iowa earlier
in the day. The overall severe threat Tuesday night appears low,
however an elevated hailer or gusty wind is possible.

By Wednesday and upper level trough that has been building across
the western US will swing into the midwest. With it, a return of
deep layer shear that has been lacking in the current flow regime.
That will help to organize storms and increase severe storm
potential on Wednesday. Right now the associated surface low is set
to track across central Minnesota with trailing cold front passing
across Iowa on Wednesday afternoon and evening. The environment
is deeply unstable ahead of the boundary with 3500-4000+ J/kg
MLCAPE in place. Better shear lags the front, though 35-40 kts
of 0-6 km shear will still be available and sufficient for
severe storms. With good shear, deep instability, and well
curved hodographs, all modes of severe weather appear possible
on Wednesday. Details will be further refined as it approaches.

The boundary reaches far eastern Iowa with lingering severe
chances there on Thursday. Temperatures cool behind the front
with highs back to the low 80s to finish out the week. Another
cool front with additional precipitation chances looks on track
for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Scattered showers have spread across Iowa today, though
lightning has remained limited so far. Coverage is expected to
increase this afternoon along with lightning potential. Another
round should lift across the area overnight, then activity
tapers off Monday morning from west to east. Wind is out of the
southeast at 10-15 kts, though stronger gusts are possible near
showers as they pass sites.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hagenhoff
LONG TERM...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Hagenhoff